by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-01-07 21:16:12
In 2021, we went 181-90-1 (66.8%) in this weekly pick’em article for confidence ranking formats, and have carried that success into 2022 – posting a 162-91-3 (64.9%) record through 17 weeks. Since Week 13 of last season, this article is 230-115-3 (67.5%) picking winners straight up!
In Week 1, we successfully navigated an abundance of chaos, finishing 10-5-1, with correct underdog selections on the Pittsburgh Steelers (+7.5), New York Giants (+6), and Minnesota Vikings (+2.5). In Week 2, our streak of seven consecutive weeks with 10-plus correct picks came to an end due to an abundance of chaos, including the Cleveland Browns blowing 13-point lead in the final two minutes, and the Las Vegas Raiders failing to hold onto a 23-point second-half cushion. In Week 3, we correctly selected six underdogs en route to a 13-3 showing. In Week 4, we hit each of our top four selections, in addition to correctly nailing five underdogs. In Week 5, favorites dominated, and we won on 11 of our selections. In Week 6, we managed another positive week, despite a number of unexpected results around the league. In Week 7, we finished only 7-7, but six of our top eight selections won, salvaging the slate for confidence pool participants. In Week 8, we had our second-best week of the year, which included hitting each of our top seven selections! Week 9 was our second consecutive week with double-digit victories, despite multiple teams being on a bye. In Week 10, we took a beating thanks to a couple of major upsets, but bounced-back, as promised, in Week 11 – hitting each of our top-seven plays, including 11-of-14 overall! In Week 12, we had double-digit victories for the fourth time in five weeks. In Week 13, we were burned by the final injury report in a couple of places, but still managed to hit each of our top six confidence plays. The positive momentum carried over to Week 14, when we hit six of our top seven confidence picks once again, with our lone loss being a fourth quarter collapse by the Las Vegas Raiders. In Week 15, we tallied our eight double-digit victory week of the season, going 11-5. In Week 16, we finished only 8-8 overall, but we salvaged our week by hitting seven of our top-eight confidence plays. In Week 17, we hit on eight of our top nine plays. Heading into the final week of the regular season, we have another difficult week of injury reports to navigate, but will do our best to end the season on a high note!
2022 NFL Pick’em
In preparation for the 2022 campaign, we evaluated each roster unit-by-unit
I will start by ranking each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.
NFL Week 18 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings
2022 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-5-1
- Week 2: 8-8
- Week 3: 13-3
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 11-5
- Week 6: 8-6
- Week 7: 7-7
- Week 8: 12-3
- Week 9: 10-3
- Week 10: 7-7
- Week 11: 11-3
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 8-6-1
- Week 14: 8-5
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-5-1
2021 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 10-6
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 15-1
- Week 4: 9-7
- Week 5: 13-3
- Week 6: 9-5
- Week 7: 10-3
- Week 8: 8-7
- Week 9: 9-5
- Week 10: 5-8-1
- Week 11: 8-7
- Week 12: 7-8
- Week 13: 11-3
- Week 14: 12-2
- Week 15: 11-5
- Week 16: 11-5
- Week 17: 13-3
- Week 18: 10-6
Week 18 Selections
1. San Francisco 49ers
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
6. Buffalo Bills
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Seattle Seahawks
9. Minnesota Vikings
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. Los Angeles Chargers
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
13. New York Jets
14. Indianapolis Colts
15. Cleveland Browns
16. Carolina Panthers
NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 18
49ers (vs. Cardinals)
Linebacker Dre Greenlaw and cornerback Ambry Thomas are both out this weekend for the San Francisco 49ers. However, these two absences do not hold much weight on a scale against the Arizona Cardinals injury report, which includes safety Budda Baker, defensive lineman Zach Allen, wide receive Robbie Anderson, linebacker Zaven Collins, running back James Conner, cornerback Antonio Hamilton, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, and cornerback Marco Wilson each having been ruled out. The Cardinals also have linebacker Victor Dimukeje, defensive lineman Leki Fotu, cornerback Josh Jackson, and linebacker Tanner Vallejo listed as questionable. Though not all of Arizona’s injuries are significant, having greater than a dozen names listed as out or questionable will eviscerate the team’s depth and force a number of players into expanded roles against one of the best teams in the NFL. The 49ers should win this game comfortably.
Eagles (vs. Giants)
Arguably, there is no team with more motivation than the Philadelphia Eagles heading into Week 18. If Philadelphia can get a win against the New York Giants in this spot, they will secure a division crown, clinch the 1-seed in the NFC, and earn a much-needed bye week as they attempt to return multiple key players to the field before they face a win-or-go-home atmosphere. Further, the Giants have already ruled out linebacker Azeez Ojulari and defensive lineman Leonard Williams for Sunday. Cornerback Adoree’ Jackson is listed as doubtful and center Jon Feliciano is questionable on the final injury report. These injuries are missing players on top of quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley not expected to play. Expect the Eagles to take care of business in Week 18.
Chiefs (vs. Raiders)
The Kansas City Chiefs have a path to the 1-seed in the AFC if they defeat the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday, making this a meaningful game for Patrick Mahomes and company. Kansas City lost in Week 3 to the Indianapolis Colts due to an inexplicably poor cascade of events on special teams, but there other two losses have come to the two other teams still fighting for the 1-seed in the AFC – the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs have a reputation for playing with their food, which has resulted in a poor ATS record, but all that matters for this article is that they win outright. In typical Kansas City fashion, this contest might be closer than anticipated, but it would be extremely surprising if the Chiefs did not walk out of Allegiant Stadium with a win this weekend.
Bengals (vs. Ravens)
Entering play, the Cincinnati Bengals have not lost a football game since Halloween. In that span, they have notable wins against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New England Patriots. In contrast, the Baltimore Ravens have struggled mightily with Lamar Jackson on the sidelines, failing to score 20 points in any of their last five games. Since the beginning of December, Cincinnati ranks 10th in offensive EPA and 13th in defensive EPA. In that same span, Baltimore ranks 22nd in offensive EPA and 17th in defensive EPA. The Bengals are the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup and have the benefit of home field – trust them to get the job done against their division rival.
Jaguars (vs. Titans)
Since Week 12, the Tennessee Titans defense ranks 31st in EPA overall, 32nd in dropback EPA, and 4th in rush EPA. On Saturday, they will once again be without a number of key defensive contributors, including safety Andrew Adams and multiple linebackers. The Titans will once again be starting Joshua Dobbs at quarterback, playing behind an offensive line missing multiple starters. In four games without Ryan Tannehill under center this year, Tennessee has scored 17, 17, 14, and 13 points, respectively. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 6-2 in their last eight games and rank 10th in offensive EPA. Defensively, the Jaguars rank 6th in rush EPA since Week 9, making them well-equipped to slow down Derrick Henry in this spot – the primary offensive threat for the Titans. In a high-stakes, win-or-go-home atmosphere, this could be a closer game than many are expecting, but Jacksonville should emerge victorious and be on their way to the postseason by the end of the night.
Image Credit: Imagn
